Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 54%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 42%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Middlesbrough: 50 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season. Millwall: 50 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Middlesbrough's numbers over its games, Millwall's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Middlesbrough's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 9 (36%). In Millwall's own 25 away matches read, 12 (48%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 42% of games.
The two sides
Middlesbrough -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 50 (54%); over 1.5 in 35 (70%); over 3.5 in 15 (30%). At home: over 2.5 in 13 of its 25 (52%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 30 of its own 50 (60%). At home: 14 of its 25 (56%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 50 (24%); failed to score in 13 (26%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Middlesbrough's own 50 matches read: Middlesbrough or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (36%). Middlesbrough itself held the lead in 14, winning 14. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 25.
Millwall -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 25 of its own 50 (50%); over 1.5 in 41 (82%); over 3.5 in 13 (26%). Away: over 2.5 in 11 of its 25 (44%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 24 of its own 50 (48%). Away: 15 of its 25 (60%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 21 of its own 50 (42%); failed to score in 9 (18%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Millwall's own 50 matches read: Millwall or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (50%). Millwall itself held the lead in 15, winning 15. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 25.
Built 07:32 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.