Wrexham scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; West Bromwich Albion scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: West Bromwich Albion's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Wrexham is softest.
Wrexham: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. West Bromwich Albion: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Wrexham scores most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 71); Wrexham concedes most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 68); West Bromwich Albion scores most in the 76-90+ band (12 of 52); West Bromwich Albion concedes most in the 31-45+ band (13 of 63). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Wrexham -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.7 for and 1.4 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 71 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 71 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 68 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 68 (26%).
The first goal
Scored first in 24 of its 50 read -- then won 15, drew 8, lost 1; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 5 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 26 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 50 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
West Bromwich Albion -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 0.8 for and 1.4 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 52 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 52 (23%).
When it concedes
Of 63 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 12.
The first goal
Scored first in 19 of its 50 read -- then won 11, drew 6, lost 2; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 3 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 50 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Built 19:31 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.