Burnley scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Wolverhampton Wanderers scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Wolverhampton Wanderers's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Burnley is softest.
Burnley: 48 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season in the Premier League. Wolverhampton Wanderers: 47 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season in the Premier League.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Burnley scores most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 53); Burnley concedes most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 94); Wolverhampton Wanderers scores most in the 76-90+ band (11 of 43); Wolverhampton Wanderers concedes most in the 31-45+ band (18 of 82). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Burnley -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 2.0 a game over its last 48 league matches; at home, 1.0 for and 1.5 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 53 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 53 (25%).
When it concedes
Of 94 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 18; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 19; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 94 (22%).
The first goal
Scored first in 14 of its 48 read -- then won 4, drew 5, lost 5; conceded first in 32 -- pulled back 1 win and 8 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 13 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 4 of its 48 read, winning 4 of them; trailed by two in 24, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Wolverhampton Wanderers -- away
Goals a game
Scores 0.9 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 47 league matches; away, 0.7 for and 1.8 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 43 scored across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 43 (26%).
When it concedes
Of 82 conceded across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 17.
The first goal
Scored first in 13 of its 47 read -- then won 6, drew 6, lost 1; conceded first in 32 -- pulled back 1 win and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 4 of its 47 read, winning 4 of them; trailed by two in 21, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Built 19:31 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.