Championship, game week 11 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
The table makes Birmingham City the bigger side: 10th against 15th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Birmingham City takes 1.65 points a game, Queens Park Rangers 1.23 -- the block form is Birmingham City's. +0.52 points a game is the venue form gap, in Birmingham City's favour: Birmingham City takes 1.76 a game at home over the last two seasons, Queens Park Rangers 1.24 away. Birmingham City scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Queens Park Rangers scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 46-60. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 57% of their games, both teams scoring in 62%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 36%. On the record this leans a goals match.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Birmingham City lands the first blow more often (23 of 50 to 15 of 50); Queens Park Rangers finds its goals latest of all -- 16 of its 66 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Birmingham City 1.59 goals expected, Queens Park Rangers 0.92, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Birmingham City 1.89 (53%), the draw 3.97 (25%), Queens Park Rangers 4.56 (22%). The market's averages: 2.00, 3.50 and 3.43. The widest gap is on Queens Park Rangers: the market is shorter (3.43) than our 4.56 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.18 (46%), under 2.5 1.85 (54%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.86, under 2.5 1.96. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.09 (48%), no 1.92 (52%). The market's averages: yes 1.69, no 2.05. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Birmingham City's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (40%). In Queens Park Rangers's own 25 away matches read, 8 (32%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 36% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 03:23 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.