Championship, game week 11 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
The table makes Derby County the bigger side: 8th against 17th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Derby County takes 1.76 points a game, Stoke City 0.50 -- the block form is Derby County's. +0.56 points a game is the venue form gap, in Derby County's favour: Derby County takes 1.48 a game at home over the last two seasons, Stoke City 0.92 away. Derby County scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Stoke City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 58%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 40%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (27 of 50 and 24 of 50); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Derby County's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Stoke City's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 50.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Derby County 1.30 goals expected, Stoke City 0.82, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Derby County 2.09 (48%), the draw 3.50 (29%), Stoke City 4.25 (24%). The market's averages: 2.85, 3.30 and 2.40. The widest gap is on Stoke City: the market is shorter (2.40) than our 4.25 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.80 (36%), under 2.5 1.56 (64%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.93, under 2.5 1.81. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.45 (41%), no 1.69 (59%). The market's averages: yes 1.72, no 1.98. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Derby County's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (24%). In Stoke City's own 25 away matches read, 14 (56%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 40% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 07:05 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.