Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 58%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 40%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Derby County: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Stoke City: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Derby County's numbers over its games, Stoke City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Derby County's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (24%). In Stoke City's own 25 away matches read, 14 (56%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 40% of games.
The two sides
Derby County -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 50 (54%); over 1.5 in 40 (80%); over 3.5 in 10 (20%). At home: over 2.5 in 11 of its 25 (44%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 32 of its own 50 (64%). At home: 16 of its 25 (64%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 50 (24%); failed to score in 6 (12%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Derby County's own 50 matches read: Derby County or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (34%). Derby County itself held the lead in 11, winning 10. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 6 of 25.
Stoke City -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 25 of its own 50 (50%); over 1.5 in 38 (76%); over 3.5 in 12 (24%). Away: over 2.5 in 9 of its 25 (36%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 26 of its own 50 (52%). Away: 10 of its 25 (40%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 50 (26%); failed to score in 15 (30%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Stoke City's own 50 matches read: Stoke City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (50%). Stoke City itself held the lead in 11, winning 10. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 14 of 25.
Built 07:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.