Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 59% of their games, both teams scoring in 65%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 42%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Southampton: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Bolton Wanderers: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Southampton's numbers over its games, Bolton Wanderers's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Southampton's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 13 (52%). In Bolton Wanderers's own 25 away matches read, 8 (32%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 42% of games.
The two sides
Southampton -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 31 of its own 50 (62%); over 1.5 in 42 (84%); over 3.5 in 18 (36%). At home: over 2.5 in 15 of its 25 (60%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 35 of its own 50 (70%). At home: 14 of its 25 (56%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 50 (26%); failed to score in 5 (10%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Southampton's own 50 matches read: Southampton or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (48%). Southampton itself held the lead in 18, winning 18. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 25.
Bolton Wanderers -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 28 of its own 50 (56%); over 1.5 in 35 (70%); over 3.5 in 17 (34%). Away: over 2.5 in 11 of its 25 (44%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 30 of its own 50 (60%). Away: 14 of its 25 (56%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 50 (26%); failed to score in 12 (24%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Bolton Wanderers's own 50 matches read: Bolton Wanderers or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (34%). Bolton Wanderers itself held the lead in 8, winning 8. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 25.
Built 03:23 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.