Southampton scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Bolton Wanderers scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Bolton Wanderers's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Southampton is softest.
Southampton: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Bolton Wanderers: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Southampton scores most in the 46-60 band (19 of 95); Southampton concedes most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 56); Bolton Wanderers scores most in the 76-90+ band (28 of 77); Bolton Wanderers concedes most in the 31-45+ band (14 of 63). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Southampton -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.9 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 2.1 for and 0.8 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 95 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 18; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 19; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 95 (20%).
When it concedes
Of 56 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 56 (23%).
The first goal
Scored first in 30 of its 50 read -- then won 22, drew 5, lost 3; conceded first in 17 -- pulled back 5 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 20 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 18 of its 50 read, winning 18 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Bolton Wanderers -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.4 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 77 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 28. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 28 of 77 (36%).
When it concedes
Of 63 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 12.
The first goal
Scored first in 26 of its 50 read -- then won 19, drew 5, lost 2; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 4 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 19 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 50 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 3 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 03:23 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.