Swansea City scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; West Ham United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Swansea City's strongest scoring spell is exactly where West Ham United is softest.
Swansea City: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. West Ham United: 48 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season in the Premier League.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Swansea City scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 67); Swansea City concedes most in the 31-45+ band (16 of 61); West Ham United scores most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 75); West Ham United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 77). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Swansea City -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.5 for and 1.0 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 67 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 67 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 61 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 13.
The first goal
Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 18, drew 3, lost 2; conceded first in 24 -- pulled back 5 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 19 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 50 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
West Ham United -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.6 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 48 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 1.8 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 75 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 75 (28%).
When it concedes
Of 77 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 77 (22%).
The first goal
Scored first in 22 of its 48 read -- then won 13, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 24 -- pulled back 2 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 14 of its 48 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 07:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.