Wrexham scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Preston North End scores heaviest in 1-15 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Wrexham's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Preston North End is softest.
Wrexham: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Preston North End: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Wrexham scores most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 69); Wrexham concedes most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 68); Preston North End scores most in the 1-15 band (12 of 56); Preston North End concedes most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 77). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Wrexham -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.7 for and 1.4 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 69 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 69 (25%).
When it concedes
Of 68 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 68 (28%).
The first goal
Scored first in 25 of its 50 read -- then won 15, drew 8, lost 2; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 4 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 23 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Preston North End -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.6 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 56 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 56 (21%).
When it concedes
Of 77 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 77 (27%).
The first goal
Scored first in 18 of its 50 read -- then won 9, drew 8, lost 1; conceded first in 30 -- pulled back 4 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 50 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 16, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Built 03:23 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.