Championship, game week 14 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
The table makes Swansea City the bigger side: 11th against 18th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Portsmouth takes 0.59 points a game, Swansea City 2.47 -- the block form is Swansea City's. +0.14 points a game is the venue form gap, in Portsmouth's favour: Portsmouth takes 1.38 a game at home over the last two seasons, Swansea City 1.24 away. Portsmouth scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Swansea City scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 51% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 49%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (23 of 50 and 23 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Swansea City's -- two goals clear in 13 of 50, against 9 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Portsmouth's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 50; Portsmouth finds its goals latest of all -- 14 of its 57 after the 75th; Swansea City finds its goals latest of all -- 16 of its 67 after the 75th.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: Portsmouth 1.40 goals expected, Swansea City 1.08, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: Portsmouth 2.26 (44%), the draw 3.75 (27%), Swansea City 3.45 (29%). The market's averages: 2.53, 3.24 and 2.54. The widest gap is on Swansea City: the market is shorter (2.54) than our 3.45 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.22 (45%), under 2.5 1.82 (55%). The market's averages: over 2.5 2.00, under 2.5 1.85. Close to our view -- no argument either way.
Our tissue: yes 2.01 (50%), no 1.99 (50%). The market's averages: yes 1.70, no 1.95. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Portsmouth's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 9 (38%). In Swansea City's own 25 away matches read, 15 (60%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 49% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 10:31 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.