Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 51% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 49%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Portsmouth: 50 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season. Swansea City: 50 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Portsmouth's numbers over its games, Swansea City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Portsmouth's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 9 (38%). In Swansea City's own 25 away matches read, 15 (60%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 49% of games.
The two sides
Portsmouth -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 23 of its own 50 (46%); over 1.5 in 35 (70%); over 3.5 in 14 (28%). At home: over 2.5 in 11 of its 24 (46%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 28 of its own 50 (56%). At home: 13 of its 24 (54%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 50 (20%); failed to score in 15 (30%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Portsmouth's own 50 matches read: Portsmouth or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (40%). Portsmouth itself held the lead in 9, winning 9. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 24.
Swansea City -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 28 of its own 50 (56%); over 1.5 in 38 (76%); over 3.5 in 11 (22%). Away: over 2.5 in 15 of its 25 (60%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 25 of its own 50 (50%). Away: 13 of its 25 (52%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 16 of its own 50 (32%); failed to score in 12 (24%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Swansea City's own 50 matches read: Swansea City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 26 (52%). Swansea City itself held the lead in 13, winning 12. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 15 of 25.
Built 10:31 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.