Cardiff City scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Burnley scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Cardiff City's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Burnley is softest.
Cardiff City: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One. Burnley: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season in the Premier League.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Cardiff City scores most in the 31-45+ band (23 of 97); Cardiff City concedes most in the 46-60 band (14 of 67); Burnley scores most in the 31-45+ band (12 of 54); Burnley concedes most in the 31-45+ band (21 of 98). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Cardiff City -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.9 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 2.2 for and 1.1 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 97 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 23; 46-60: 17; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 19.
When it concedes
Of 67 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 11.
The first goal
Scored first in 28 of its 50 read -- then won 21, drew 7, lost 0; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 3 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 19 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 17 of its 50 read, winning 15 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Burnley -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 2.0 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 2.4 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 54 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 54 (22%).
When it concedes
Of 98 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 17; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 21; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 98 (21%).
The first goal
Scored first in 16 of its 50 read -- then won 3, drew 6, lost 7; conceded first in 31 -- pulled back 1 win and 8 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 13 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 3 of its 50 read, winning 3 of them; trailed by two in 24, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 14.
Built 10:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.