Portsmouth scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Stoke City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Portsmouth's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Stoke City is softest.
Portsmouth: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season. Stoke City: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Portsmouth scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 59); Portsmouth concedes most in the 46-60 band (14 of 70); Stoke City scores most in the 31-45+ band (13 of 61); Stoke City concedes most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 67). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Portsmouth -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.3 for and 1.1 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 59 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 59 (27%).
When it concedes
Of 70 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 70 (20%).
The first goal
Scored first in 24 of its 50 read -- then won 15, drew 7, lost 2; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 2 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Stoke City -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 0.8 for and 1.4 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 61 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 8.
When it concedes
Of 67 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 67 (31%).
The first goal
Scored first in 25 of its 50 read -- then won 17, drew 3, lost 5; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 1 win and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 7 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 50 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Built 10:03 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.