Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 50% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Portsmouth: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season. Stoke City: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Portsmouth's numbers over its games, Stoke City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Portsmouth's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (40%). In Stoke City's own 25 away matches read, 15 (60%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games.
The two sides
Portsmouth -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 50 (48%); over 1.5 in 35 (70%); over 3.5 in 15 (30%). At home: over 2.5 in 12 of its 25 (48%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 28 of its own 50 (56%). At home: 14 of its 25 (56%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 50 (20%); failed to score in 15 (30%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Portsmouth's own 50 matches read: Portsmouth or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (42%). Portsmouth itself held the lead in 10, winning 10. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 25.
Stoke City -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 50 (52%); over 1.5 in 38 (76%); over 3.5 in 12 (24%). Away: over 2.5 in 10 of its 25 (40%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 25 of its own 50 (50%). Away: 10 of its 25 (40%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 14 of its own 50 (28%); failed to score in 15 (30%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Stoke City's own 50 matches read: Stoke City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 27 (54%). Stoke City itself held the lead in 13, winning 12. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 15 of 25.
Built 10:03 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.