Preston North End scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Southampton scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Preston North End's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Southampton is softest.
Preston North End: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season. Southampton: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Preston North End scores most in the 76-90+ band (12 of 55); Preston North End concedes most in the 76-90+ band (22 of 83); Southampton scores most in the 46-60 band (21 of 100); Southampton concedes most in the 76-90+ band (12 of 54). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Preston North End -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.1 for and 1.6 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 55 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 55 (22%).
When it concedes
Of 83 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 17; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 22. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 22 of 83 (27%).
The first goal
Scored first in 18 of its 50 read -- then won 8, drew 8, lost 2; conceded first in 31 -- pulled back 4 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 50 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 18, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Southampton -- away
Goals a game
Scores 2.0 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.8 for and 1.4 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 100 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 16; 16-30: 16; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 21; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 20.
When it concedes
Of 54 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 54 (22%).
The first goal
Scored first in 29 of its 50 read -- then won 24, drew 4, lost 1; conceded first in 18 -- pulled back 5 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 21 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 20 of its 50 read, winning 20 of them; trailed by two in 5, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Built 10:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.