Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 58% of their games, both teams scoring in 66%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 49%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Preston North End: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season. Southampton: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Preston North End's numbers over its games, Southampton's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Preston North End's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 13 (52%). In Southampton's own 24 away matches read, 11 (46%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 49% of games.
The two sides
Preston North End -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 50 (54%); over 1.5 in 42 (84%); over 3.5 in 15 (30%). At home: over 2.5 in 13 of its 25 (52%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 31 of its own 50 (62%). At home: 16 of its 25 (64%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 5 of its own 50 (10%); failed to score in 15 (30%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Preston North End's own 50 matches read: Preston North End or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 27 (54%). Preston North End itself held the lead in 9, winning 8. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 25.
Southampton -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 31 of its own 50 (62%); over 1.5 in 42 (84%); over 3.5 in 19 (38%). Away: over 2.5 in 15 of its 24 (62%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 35 of its own 50 (70%). Away: 20 of its 24 (83%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 50 (26%); failed to score in 5 (10%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Southampton's own 50 matches read: Southampton or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (50%). Southampton itself held the lead in 20, winning 20. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 24.
Built 10:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.