AFC Bournemouth v Everton

The appraisal

The table makes AFC Bournemouth the bigger side: 6th against 13th of 20 last season. Against the block the other keeps: AFC Bournemouth takes 1.50 points a game, Everton 0.92 -- the block form is AFC Bournemouth's. +0.26 points a game is the venue form gap, in AFC Bournemouth's favour: AFC Bournemouth takes 1.63 a game at home over the last two seasons, Everton 1.37 away. AFC Bournemouth scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Everton scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: AFC Bournemouth's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Everton is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 50% of their games, both teams scoring in 58%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 32%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.

How it may unfold

If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (20 of 39 and 18 of 39); a one-goal lead has not been safe in AFC Bournemouth's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 39; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Everton's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 39; AFC Bournemouth finds its goals latest of all -- 16 of its 59 after the 75th, and Everton concedes most in that same spell; Everton finds its goals latest of all -- 15 of its 49 after the 75th, and AFC Bournemouth concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.

That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.

The tissue is a plain goals model: AFC Bournemouth 1.29 goals expected, Everton 1.01, from two seasons of scoring rates (19 home matches and 19 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.

Our numbers against the market’s

Match result

Our tissue: AFC Bournemouth 2.34 (43%), the draw 3.57 (28%), Everton 3.42 (29%). The market's averages: 2.06, 3.40 and 3.60. All three outcomes sit close to our numbers -- no argument either way.

Over or under 2.5 goals

Our tissue: over 2.5 2.48 (40%), under 2.5 1.68 (60%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.91, under 2.5 1.91. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.

Both teams to score

Our tissue: yes 2.17 (46%), no 1.86 (54%). The market's averages: yes 1.69, no 2.07. The market is shorter than our number on yes.

The 2UP fact

For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In AFC Bournemouth's own 19 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (32%). In Everton's own 19 away matches read, 6 (32%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 32% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.

The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.

Built 06:36 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.