Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 59% of their games, both teams scoring in 59%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Chelsea: 39 league matches in the bank, 1 from this season and the rest from last season. Brighton & Hove Albion: 39 league matches in the bank, 1 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Chelsea's numbers over its games, Brighton & Hove Albion's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Chelsea's own 19 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (53%). In Brighton & Hove Albion's own 19 away matches read, 9 (47%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games.
The two sides
Chelsea -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 39 (67%); over 1.5 in 34 (87%); over 3.5 in 13 (33%). At home: over 2.5 in 11 of its 19 (58%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 25 of its own 39 (64%). At home: 11 of its 19 (58%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 39 (23%); failed to score in 7 (18%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Chelsea's own 39 matches read: Chelsea or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 23 (59%). Chelsea itself held the lead in 13, winning 12. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 19.
Brighton & Hove Albion -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 20 of its own 39 (51%); over 1.5 in 32 (82%); over 3.5 in 8 (21%). Away: over 2.5 in 8 of its 19 (42%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 21 of its own 39 (54%). Away: 10 of its 19 (53%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 39 (28%); failed to score in 9 (23%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Brighton & Hove Albion's own 39 matches read: Brighton & Hove Albion or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (44%). Brighton & Hove Albion itself held the lead in 11, winning 9. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 19.
Built 06:33 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.