Chelsea scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 1-15; Brighton & Hove Albion scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+.
Chelsea: 39 league matches in the bank, 1 from this season and the rest from last season. Brighton & Hove Albion: 39 league matches in the bank, 1 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Chelsea scores most in the 46-60 band (15 of 61); Chelsea concedes most in the 1-15 band (11 of 54); Brighton & Hove Albion scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 56); Brighton & Hove Albion concedes most in the 31-45+ band (11 of 46). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Chelsea -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.6 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 39 league matches; at home, 1.4 for and 1.3 against over 19.
When it scores
Of 61 scored across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 9.
When it concedes
Of 54 conceded across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 54 (20%).
The first goal
Scored first in 18 of its 39 read -- then won 12, drew 3, lost 3; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 3 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 39 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Brighton & Hove Albion -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 39 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.4 against over 19.
When it scores
Of 56 scored across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 56 (29%).
When it concedes
Of 46 conceded across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 46 (24%).
The first goal
Scored first in 17 of its 39 read -- then won 12, drew 3, lost 2; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 3 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 39 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Built 06:33 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.