Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 54% of their games, both teams scoring in 54%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 53%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Leeds United: 39 league matches in the bank, 1 from this season and the rest from last season. Brentford: 39 league matches in the bank, 1 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Leeds United's numbers over its games, Brentford's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Leeds United's own 19 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (42%). In Brentford's own 19 away matches read, 12 (63%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 53% of games.
The two sides
Leeds United -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 21 of its own 39 (54%); over 1.5 in 28 (72%); over 3.5 in 14 (36%). At home: over 2.5 in 11 of its 19 (58%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 22 of its own 39 (56%). At home: 10 of its 19 (53%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 39 (23%); failed to score in 12 (31%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Leeds United's own 39 matches read: Leeds United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (44%). Leeds United itself held the lead in 8, winning 8. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 19.
Brentford -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 21 of its own 39 (54%); over 1.5 in 32 (82%); over 3.5 in 14 (36%). Away: over 2.5 in 9 of its 19 (47%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 20 of its own 39 (51%). Away: 9 of its 19 (47%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 39 (28%); failed to score in 12 (31%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Brentford's own 39 matches read: Brentford or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 23 (59%). Brentford itself held the lead in 13, winning 12. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 19.
Built 06:33 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.