Sunderland: 39 league matches in the bank, 1 from this season and the rest from last season. Fulham: 39 league matches in the bank, 1 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Sunderland scores most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 43); Sunderland concedes most in the 31-45+ band (10 of 50); Fulham scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 49); Fulham concedes most in the 46-60 band (14 of 54). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Sunderland -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 39 league matches; at home, 1.3 for and 1.1 against over 19.
When it scores
Of 43 scored across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 2; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 43 (30%).
When it concedes
Of 50 conceded across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 9.
The first goal
Scored first in 13 of its 39 read -- then won 8, drew 5, lost 0; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 6 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 22 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 5 of its 39 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Fulham -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 39 league matches; away, 0.9 for and 1.6 against over 19.
When it scores
Of 49 scored across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 49 (29%).
When it concedes
Of 54 conceded across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 2; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 12.
The first goal
Scored first in 16 of its 39 read -- then won 12, drew 1, lost 3; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 3 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 39 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 4.
Built 06:33 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.