Aston Villa scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 1-15; Arsenal scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Aston Villa's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Arsenal is softest.
Aston Villa: 39 league matches in the bank, 1 from this season and the rest from last season. Arsenal: 39 league matches in the bank, 1 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Aston Villa scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 56); Aston Villa concedes most in the 1-15 band (10 of 53); Arsenal scores most in the 31-45+ band (16 of 74); Arsenal concedes most in the 76-90+ band (9 of 27). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Aston Villa -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 39 league matches; at home, 1.7 for and 1.2 against over 19.
When it scores
Of 56 scored across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 56 (25%).
When it concedes
Of 53 conceded across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 9. Its heaviest conceding spell is the first 15 minutes -- 10 of 53 (19%).
The first goal
Scored first in 16 of its 39 read -- then won 12, drew 3, lost 1; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 7 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 23 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 39 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Arsenal -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.9 and concedes 0.7 a game over its last 39 league matches; away, 1.6 for and 0.8 against over 19.
When it scores
Of 74 scored across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 74 (22%).
When it concedes
Of 27 conceded across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 2; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 9. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 9 of 27 (33%).
The first goal
Scored first in 28 of its 39 read -- then won 25, drew 2, lost 1; conceded first in 9 -- pulled back 2 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 17 of its 39 read, winning 16 of them; was ahead at some point without winning in 4.
Built 06:33 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.