Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 54% of their games, both teams scoring in 51%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 42%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Aston Villa: 39 league matches in the bank, 1 from this season and the rest from last season. Arsenal: 39 league matches in the bank, 1 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Aston Villa's numbers over its games, Arsenal's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Aston Villa's own 19 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (53%). In Arsenal's own 19 away matches read, 6 (32%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 42% of games.
The two sides
Aston Villa -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 21 of its own 39 (54%); over 1.5 in 29 (74%); over 3.5 in 12 (31%). At home: over 2.5 in 11 of its 19 (58%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 22 of its own 39 (56%). At home: 10 of its 19 (53%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 39 (23%); failed to score in 11 (28%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Aston Villa's own 39 matches read: Aston Villa or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (44%). Aston Villa itself held the lead in 9, winning 9. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 19.
Arsenal -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 21 of its own 39 (54%); over 1.5 in 28 (72%); over 3.5 in 9 (23%). Away: over 2.5 in 9 of its 19 (47%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 18 of its own 39 (46%). Away: 10 of its 19 (53%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 20 of its own 39 (51%); failed to score in 3 (8%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Arsenal's own 39 matches read: Arsenal or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (44%). Arsenal itself held the lead in 17, winning 16. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 6 of 19.
Built 06:33 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.