Ipswich Town scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Liverpool scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Ipswich Town's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Liverpool is softest.
Ipswich Town: 48 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season in the Championship. Liverpool: 40 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Ipswich Town scores most in the 76-90+ band (25 of 84); Ipswich Town concedes most in the 31-45+ band (15 of 53); Liverpool scores most in the 76-90+ band (22 of 67); Liverpool concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 57). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Ipswich Town -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.8 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 48 league matches; at home, 1.9 for and 0.8 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 84 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 25. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 25 of 84 (30%).
When it concedes
Of 53 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 7.
The first goal
Scored first in 27 of its 48 read -- then won 22, drew 4, lost 1; conceded first in 18 -- pulled back 2 wins and 8 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 16 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 16 of its 48 read, winning 16 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Liverpool -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.7 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 40 league matches; away, 1.6 for and 1.8 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 67 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 22. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 22 of 67 (33%).
When it concedes
Of 57 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 57 (30%).
The first goal
Scored first in 22 of its 40 read -- then won 16, drew 5, lost 1; conceded first in 16 -- pulled back 1 win and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 7 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 40 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Built 07:02 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.