Coventry City scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Brighton & Hove Albion scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+.
Coventry City: 49 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season in the Championship. Brighton & Hove Albion: 41 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Coventry City scores most in the 76-90+ band (22 of 97); Coventry City concedes most in the 61-75 band (11 of 50); Brighton & Hove Albion scores most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 60); Brighton & Hove Albion concedes most in the 31-45+ band (12 of 51). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Coventry City -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 2.0 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 49 league matches; at home, 2.1 for and 0.8 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 97 scored across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 15; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 21; 46-60: 18; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 22. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 22 of 97 (23%).
When it concedes
Of 50 conceded across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 9.
The first goal
Scored first in 30 of its 49 read -- then won 23, drew 4, lost 3; conceded first in 14 -- pulled back 5 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 20 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 19 of its 49 read, winning 19 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Brighton & Hove Albion -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 41 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.5 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 60 scored across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 60 (28%).
When it concedes
Of 51 conceded across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 11.
The first goal
Scored first in 17 of its 41 read -- then won 12, drew 3, lost 2; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 3 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 16 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 41 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Built 06:32 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.