Leeds United scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Newcastle United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Newcastle United's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Leeds United is softest.
Leeds United: 41 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Newcastle United: 41 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Leeds United scores most in the 31-45+ band (11 of 52); Leeds United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 58); Newcastle United scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 59); Newcastle United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (22 of 59). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Leeds United -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 41 league matches; at home, 1.5 for and 1.1 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 52 scored across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 52 (21%).
When it concedes
Of 58 conceded across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 58 (29%).
The first goal
Scored first in 18 of its 41 read -- then won 11, drew 4, lost 3; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 1 win and 8 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 41 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Newcastle United -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 41 league matches; away, 0.9 for and 1.2 against over 20.
When it scores
Of 59 scored across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 59 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 59 conceded across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 22. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 22 of 59 (37%).
The first goal
Scored first in 25 of its 41 read -- then won 14, drew 4, lost 7; conceded first in 12 -- pulled back 1 win and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 4 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 41 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Built 19:37 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.