Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 57% of their games, both teams scoring in 62%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 38%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Leeds United: 41 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Newcastle United: 41 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Leeds United's numbers over its games, Newcastle United's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Leeds United's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (40%). In Newcastle United's own 20 away matches read, 7 (35%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 38% of games.
The two sides
Leeds United -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 21 of its own 41 (51%); over 1.5 in 30 (73%); over 3.5 in 14 (34%). At home: over 2.5 in 11 of its 20 (55%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 24 of its own 41 (59%). At home: 11 of its 20 (55%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 41 (22%); failed to score in 12 (29%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Leeds United's own 41 matches read: Leeds United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (41%). Leeds United itself held the lead in 8, winning 8. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 20.
Newcastle United -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 41 (63%); over 1.5 in 32 (78%); over 3.5 in 15 (37%). Away: over 2.5 in 9 of its 20 (45%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 27 of its own 41 (66%). Away: 10 of its 20 (50%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 41 (22%); failed to score in 9 (22%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Newcastle United's own 41 matches read: Newcastle United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 16 (39%). Newcastle United itself held the lead in 9, winning 8. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 20.
Built 19:37 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.