Aston Villa scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Brentford scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Aston Villa's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Brentford is softest.
Aston Villa: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. Brentford: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Aston Villa scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 60); Aston Villa concedes most in the 46-60 band (12 of 58); Brentford scores most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 65); Brentford concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 56). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Aston Villa -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 43 league matches; at home, 1.6 for and 1.2 against over 21.
When it scores
Of 60 scored across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 60 (25%).
When it concedes
Of 58 conceded across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 58 (21%).
The first goal
Scored first in 17 of its 43 read -- then won 13, drew 3, lost 1; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 7 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 23 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 43 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Brentford -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 43 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.6 against over 21.
When it scores
Of 65 scored across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 65 (32%).
When it concedes
Of 56 conceded across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 56 (30%).
The first goal
Scored first in 24 of its 43 read -- then won 14, drew 7, lost 3; conceded first in 15 -- pulled back 2 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 14 of its 43 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Built 18:34 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.