Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 55%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 52%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Aston Villa: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. Brentford: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Aston Villa's numbers over its games, Brentford's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Aston Villa's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (48%). In Brentford's own 21 away matches read, 12 (57%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 52% of games.
The two sides
Aston Villa -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 23 of its own 43 (53%); over 1.5 in 31 (72%); over 3.5 in 13 (30%). At home: over 2.5 in 12 of its 21 (57%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 24 of its own 43 (56%). At home: 11 of its 21 (52%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 43 (23%); failed to score in 13 (30%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Aston Villa's own 43 matches read: Aston Villa or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (42%). Aston Villa itself held the lead in 10, winning 10. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 21.
Brentford -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 23 of its own 43 (53%); over 1.5 in 36 (84%); over 3.5 in 15 (35%). Away: over 2.5 in 10 of its 21 (48%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 23 of its own 43 (53%). Away: 11 of its 21 (52%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 43 (28%); failed to score in 12 (28%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Brentford's own 43 matches read: Brentford or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (56%). Brentford itself held the lead in 14, winning 13. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 21.
Built 18:34 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.