Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 63% of their games, both teams scoring in 66%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 45%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Chelsea: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. AFC Bournemouth: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Chelsea's numbers over its games, AFC Bournemouth's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Chelsea's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (52%). In AFC Bournemouth's own 21 away matches read, 8 (38%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 45% of games.
The two sides
Chelsea -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 30 of its own 43 (70%); over 1.5 in 38 (88%); over 3.5 in 15 (35%). At home: over 2.5 in 13 of its 21 (62%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 28 of its own 43 (65%). At home: 13 of its 21 (62%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 43 (21%); failed to score in 8 (19%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Chelsea's own 43 matches read: Chelsea or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (58%). Chelsea itself held the lead in 14, winning 13. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 21.
AFC Bournemouth -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 43 (56%); over 1.5 in 33 (77%); over 3.5 in 18 (42%). Away: over 2.5 in 14 of its 21 (67%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 29 of its own 43 (67%). Away: 15 of its 21 (71%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 43 (26%); failed to score in 8 (19%).
Two goals clear
Counted over AFC Bournemouth's own 43 matches read: AFC Bournemouth or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 14 (33%). AFC Bournemouth itself held the lead in 8, winning 5. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 21.
Built 18:34 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.