Chelsea scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; AFC Bournemouth scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: AFC Bournemouth's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Chelsea is softest.
Chelsea: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. AFC Bournemouth: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Chelsea scores most in the 31-45+ band (15 of 68); Chelsea concedes most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 64); AFC Bournemouth scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 64); AFC Bournemouth concedes most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 62). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Chelsea -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.6 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 43 league matches; at home, 1.5 for and 1.4 against over 21.
When it scores
Of 68 scored across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 9.
When it concedes
Of 64 conceded across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 64 (22%).
The first goal
Scored first in 21 of its 43 read -- then won 13, drew 4, lost 4; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 3 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 14 of its 43 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
AFC Bournemouth -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 43 league matches; away, 1.5 for and 1.8 against over 21.
When it scores
Of 64 scored across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 64 (25%).
When it concedes
Of 62 conceded across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 62 (31%).
The first goal
Scored first in 22 of its 43 read -- then won 10, drew 9, lost 3; conceded first in 16 -- pulled back 3 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 18 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 43 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 14.
Built 18:34 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.