Hull City scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Everton scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Everton's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Hull City is softest.
Hull City: 50 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season in the Championship. Everton: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Hull City scores most in the 31-45+ band (17 of 74); Hull City concedes most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 61); Everton scores most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 53); Everton concedes most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 53). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Hull City -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.4 for and 1.2 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 74 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 17; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 12.
When it concedes
Of 61 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 61 (23%).
The first goal
Scored first in 28 of its 50 read -- then won 20, drew 4, lost 4; conceded first in 18 -- pulled back 4 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 14 of its 50 read, winning 14 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Everton -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 43 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 1.1 against over 21.
When it scores
Of 53 scored across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 53 (34%).
When it concedes
Of 53 conceded across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 53 (30%).
The first goal
Scored first in 19 of its 43 read -- then won 13, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 2 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 43 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Built 14:36 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.