Fulham scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Hull City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Fulham's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Hull City is softest.
Fulham: 44 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season. Hull City: 50 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season in the Championship.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Fulham scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 53); Fulham concedes most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 61); Hull City scores most in the 31-45+ band (16 of 74); Hull City concedes most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 61). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Fulham -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 44 league matches; at home, 1.6 for and 1.2 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 53 scored across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 53 (26%).
When it concedes
Of 61 conceded across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 2; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 61 (26%).
The first goal
Scored first in 19 of its 44 read -- then won 12, drew 2, lost 5; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 3 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 44 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Hull City -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.5 for and 1.2 against over 24.
When it scores
Of 74 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 11.
When it concedes
Of 61 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 61 (23%).
The first goal
Scored first in 29 of its 50 read -- then won 20, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 17 -- pulled back 4 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 14 of its 50 read, winning 14 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 10.
Built 07:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.