Manchester City scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Ipswich Town scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Manchester City's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Ipswich Town is softest.
Manchester City: 44 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season. Ipswich Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season in the Championship.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Manchester City scores most in the 31-45+ band (23 of 93); Manchester City concedes most in the 61-75 band (11 of 40); Ipswich Town scores most in the 76-90+ band (27 of 87); Ipswich Town concedes most in the 31-45+ band (15 of 57). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Manchester City -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 2.1 and concedes 0.9 a game over its last 44 league matches; at home, 2.4 for and 0.8 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 93 scored across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 23; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 18.
When it concedes
Of 40 conceded across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 1; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 7.
The first goal
Scored first in 36 of its 44 read -- then won 27, drew 7, lost 2; conceded first in 7 -- pulled back 2 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 20 of its 44 read, winning 19 of them; trailed by two in 3, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Ipswich Town -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.7 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.6 for and 1.5 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 87 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 17; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 27. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 27 of 87 (31%).
When it concedes
Of 57 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 7.
The first goal
Scored first in 26 of its 50 read -- then won 22, drew 3, lost 1; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 4 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 21 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 16 of its 50 read, winning 16 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Built 00:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.