Newcastle United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Aston Villa scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Newcastle United's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Aston Villa is softest.
Newcastle United: 44 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season. Aston Villa: 44 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Newcastle United scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 63); Newcastle United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (24 of 68); Aston Villa scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 62); Aston Villa concedes most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 60). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Newcastle United -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 44 league matches; at home, 1.9 for and 1.6 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 63 scored across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 63 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 68 conceded across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 17; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 24. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 24 of 68 (35%).
The first goal
Scored first in 26 of its 44 read -- then won 15, drew 4, lost 7; conceded first in 14 -- pulled back 1 win and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 4 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 44 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Aston Villa -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 44 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.5 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 62 scored across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 62 (26%).
When it concedes
Of 60 conceded across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 60 (22%).
The first goal
Scored first in 17 of its 44 read -- then won 13, drew 3, lost 1; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 7 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 24 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 44 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Built 07:06 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.