Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 60% of their games, both teams scoring in 62%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 41%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Newcastle United: 44 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season. Aston Villa: 44 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Newcastle United's numbers over its games, Aston Villa's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Newcastle United's own 22 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (45%). In Aston Villa's own 22 away matches read, 8 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 41% of games.
The two sides
Newcastle United -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 29 of its own 44 (66%); over 1.5 in 35 (80%); over 3.5 in 17 (39%). At home: over 2.5 in 18 of its 22 (82%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 30 of its own 44 (68%). At home: 18 of its 22 (82%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 44 (20%); failed to score in 9 (20%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Newcastle United's own 44 matches read: Newcastle United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (43%). Newcastle United itself held the lead in 10, winning 9. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 22.
Aston Villa -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 44 (55%); over 1.5 in 32 (73%); over 3.5 in 14 (32%). Away: over 2.5 in 11 of its 22 (50%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 25 of its own 44 (57%). Away: 13 of its 22 (59%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 44 (23%); failed to score in 13 (30%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Aston Villa's own 44 matches read: Aston Villa or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (41%). Aston Villa itself held the lead in 10, winning 10. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 22.
Built 07:06 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.