Premier League, game week 7 — UK time
Your appraisal — and now the market.
AFC Bournemouth and Sunderland finished near neighbours last season -- 6th and 7th of 20 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: AFC Bournemouth takes 1.33 points a game, Sunderland 0.64 -- the block form is AFC Bournemouth's. +0.50 points a game is the venue form gap, in AFC Bournemouth's favour: AFC Bournemouth takes 1.50 a game at home over the last two seasons, Sunderland 1.00 away. AFC Bournemouth scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Sunderland scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 46-60. The shapes mesh: Sunderland's strongest scoring spell is exactly where AFC Bournemouth is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 50% of their games, both teams scoring in 58%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 34%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: AFC Bournemouth lands the first blow more often (22 of 44 to 14 of 44); a one-goal lead has not been safe in AFC Bournemouth's hands -- ahead without winning in 14 of 44; AFC Bournemouth finds its goals latest of all -- 16 of its 65 after the 75th; Sunderland finds its goals latest of all -- 14 of its 48 after the 75th, and AFC Bournemouth concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move.
That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it.
The tissue is a plain goals model: AFC Bournemouth 1.55 goals expected, Sunderland 0.96, from two seasons of scoring rates (22 home matches and 22 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks.
Our tissue: AFC Bournemouth 1.95 (51%), the draw 3.92 (26%), Sunderland 4.29 (23%). The market's averages: 2.03, 3.45 and 3.56. The widest gap is on Sunderland: the market is shorter (3.56) than our 4.29 -- it rates that outcome more than we do.
Our tissue: over 2.5 2.18 (46%), under 2.5 1.85 (54%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.81, under 2.5 2.05. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5.
Our tissue: yes 2.06 (49%), no 1.95 (51%). The market's averages: yes 1.67, no 2.10. The market is shorter than our number on yes.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In AFC Bournemouth's own 22 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (27%). In Sunderland's own 22 away matches read, 9 (41%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 34% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read.
The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing.
Built 07:06 from matches completed before kick-off. The tissue is a model, not a measurement; the market figures are recorded averages, not offers. Nothing here is a tip or a selection.