Brighton & Hove Albion scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Crystal Palace scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Crystal Palace's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Brighton & Hove Albion is softest.
Brighton & Hove Albion: 44 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season. Crystal Palace: 44 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Brighton & Hove Albion scores most in the 76-90+ band (20 of 70); Brighton & Hove Albion concedes most in the 31-45+ band (12 of 51); Crystal Palace scores most in the 31-45+ band (15 of 50); Crystal Palace concedes most in the 31-45+ band (24 of 63). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Brighton & Hove Albion -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.6 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 44 league matches; at home, 1.7 for and 1.0 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 70 scored across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 20. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 20 of 70 (29%).
When it concedes
Of 51 conceded across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 11.
The first goal
Scored first in 20 of its 44 read -- then won 15, drew 3, lost 2; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 3 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 16 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 14 of its 44 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Crystal Palace -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 44 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 1.5 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 50 scored across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 12.
When it concedes
Of 63 conceded across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 24; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 14.
The first goal
Scored first in 18 of its 44 read -- then won 9, drew 3, lost 6; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 4 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 44 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 07:06 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.