Arsenal scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Everton scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Everton's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Arsenal is softest.
Arsenal: 45 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Everton: 45 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Arsenal scores most in the 46-60 band (19 of 82); Arsenal concedes most in the 76-90+ band (9 of 32); Everton scores most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 55); Everton concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 57). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Arsenal -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.8 and concedes 0.7 a game over its last 45 league matches; at home, 2.2 for and 0.6 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 82 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 19; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 18.
When it concedes
Of 32 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 9. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 9 of 32 (28%).
The first goal
Scored first in 31 of its 45 read -- then won 28, drew 2, lost 1; conceded first in 12 -- pulled back 4 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 18 of its 45 read, winning 17 of them; trailed by two in 1, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 4.
Everton -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 45 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 1.2 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 55 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 55 (33%).
When it concedes
Of 57 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 57 (30%).
The first goal
Scored first in 19 of its 45 read -- then won 13, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 2 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 13 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 45 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Built 03:24 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.