Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 48% of their games, both teams scoring in 47%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 39%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Arsenal: 45 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Everton: 45 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Arsenal's numbers over its games, Everton's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Arsenal's own 22 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (50%). In Everton's own 22 away matches read, 6 (27%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 39% of games.
The two sides
Arsenal -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 45 (53%); over 1.5 in 32 (71%); over 3.5 in 9 (20%). At home: over 2.5 in 14 of its 22 (64%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 20 of its own 45 (44%). At home: 10 of its 22 (45%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 23 of its own 45 (51%); failed to score in 4 (9%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Arsenal's own 45 matches read: Arsenal or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (42%). Arsenal itself held the lead in 18, winning 17. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 22.
Everton -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 19 of its own 45 (42%); over 1.5 in 34 (76%); over 3.5 in 10 (22%). Away: over 2.5 in 8 of its 22 (36%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 22 of its own 45 (49%). Away: 11 of its 22 (50%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 14 of its own 45 (31%); failed to score in 12 (27%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Everton's own 45 matches read: Everton or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (40%). Everton itself held the lead in 9, winning 8. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 6 of 22.
Built 03:24 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.