Aston Villa scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Manchester City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75.
Aston Villa: 45 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Manchester City: 45 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Aston Villa scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 63); Aston Villa concedes most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 60); Manchester City scores most in the 31-45+ band (24 of 96); Manchester City concedes most in the 61-75 band (11 of 42). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Aston Villa -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 45 league matches; at home, 1.6 for and 1.2 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 63 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 63 (25%).
When it concedes
Of 60 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 60 (22%).
The first goal
Scored first in 18 of its 45 read -- then won 14, drew 3, lost 1; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 7 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 24 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 45 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Manchester City -- away
Goals a game
Scores 2.1 and concedes 0.9 a game over its last 45 league matches; away, 1.8 for and 1.0 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 96 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 24; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 17; 76-90+: 18.
When it concedes
Of 42 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 1; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 8.
The first goal
Scored first in 37 of its 45 read -- then won 28, drew 7, lost 2; conceded first in 7 -- pulled back 2 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 21 of its 45 read, winning 20 of them; trailed by two in 3, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Built 03:24 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.