Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 59% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 43%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Aston Villa: 45 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Manchester City: 45 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Aston Villa's numbers over its games, Manchester City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Aston Villa's own 22 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (45%). In Manchester City's own 22 away matches read, 9 (41%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 43% of games.
The two sides
Aston Villa -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 45 (53%); over 1.5 in 32 (71%); over 3.5 in 14 (31%). At home: over 2.5 in 13 of its 22 (59%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 25 of its own 45 (56%). At home: 12 of its 22 (55%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 45 (24%); failed to score in 13 (29%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Aston Villa's own 45 matches read: Aston Villa or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (40%). Aston Villa itself held the lead in 10, winning 10. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 22.
Manchester City -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 29 of its own 45 (64%); over 1.5 in 38 (84%); over 3.5 in 11 (24%). Away: over 2.5 in 12 of its 22 (55%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 23 of its own 45 (51%). Away: 11 of its 22 (50%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 19 of its own 45 (42%); failed to score in 4 (9%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Manchester City's own 45 matches read: Manchester City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (53%). Manchester City itself held the lead in 21, winning 20. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 22.
Built 03:24 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.