Crystal Palace scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Newcastle United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+.
Crystal Palace: 45 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Newcastle United: 45 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Crystal Palace scores most in the 31-45+ band (15 of 50); Crystal Palace concedes most in the 31-45+ band (24 of 68); Newcastle United scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 63); Newcastle United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (24 of 69). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Crystal Palace -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 45 league matches; at home, 1.1 for and 1.4 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 50 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 12.
When it concedes
Of 68 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 24; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 15.
The first goal
Scored first in 18 of its 45 read -- then won 9, drew 3, lost 6; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 4 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 45 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9.
Newcastle United -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 45 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 1.5 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 63 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 63 (24%).
When it concedes
Of 69 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 24. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 24 of 69 (35%).
The first goal
Scored first in 26 of its 45 read -- then won 15, drew 4, lost 7; conceded first in 15 -- pulled back 1 win and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 4 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 45 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Built 10:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.