Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 61% of their games, both teams scoring in 60%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 39%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Crystal Palace: 45 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Newcastle United: 45 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Crystal Palace's numbers over its games, Newcastle United's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Crystal Palace's own 22 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (36%). In Newcastle United's own 22 away matches read, 9 (41%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 39% of games.
The two sides
Crystal Palace -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 45 (58%); over 1.5 in 33 (73%); over 3.5 in 13 (29%). At home: over 2.5 in 12 of its 22 (55%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 24 of its own 45 (53%). At home: 13 of its 22 (59%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 45 (29%); failed to score in 15 (33%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Crystal Palace's own 45 matches read: Crystal Palace or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (40%). Crystal Palace itself held the lead in 6, winning 5. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 22.
Newcastle United -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 29 of its own 45 (64%); over 1.5 in 35 (78%); over 3.5 in 17 (38%). Away: over 2.5 in 11 of its 22 (50%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 30 of its own 45 (67%). Away: 12 of its 22 (55%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 45 (20%); failed to score in 10 (22%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Newcastle United's own 45 matches read: Newcastle United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (42%). Newcastle United itself held the lead in 10, winning 9. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 22.
Built 10:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.