Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 57% of their games, both teams scoring in 58%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 52%. On the record this leans a goals match.
Liverpool: 45 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Brighton & Hove Albion: 45 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Liverpool's numbers over its games, Brighton & Hove Albion's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Liverpool's own 22 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (50%). In Brighton & Hove Albion's own 22 away matches read, 12 (55%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 52% of games.
The two sides
Liverpool -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 45 (60%); over 1.5 in 37 (82%); over 3.5 in 13 (29%). At home: over 2.5 in 11 of its 22 (50%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 29 of its own 45 (64%). At home: 14 of its 22 (64%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 45 (29%); failed to score in 6 (13%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Liverpool's own 45 matches read: Liverpool or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (47%). Liverpool itself held the lead in 14, winning 13. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 22.
Brighton & Hove Albion -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 45 (53%); over 1.5 in 38 (84%); over 3.5 in 11 (24%). Away: over 2.5 in 10 of its 22 (45%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 23 of its own 45 (51%). Away: 11 of its 22 (50%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 15 of its own 45 (33%); failed to score in 9 (20%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Brighton & Hove Albion's own 45 matches read: Brighton & Hove Albion or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 22 (49%). Brighton & Hove Albion itself held the lead in 15, winning 13. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 22.
Built 10:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.