Liverpool scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Brighton & Hove Albion scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Brighton & Hove Albion's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Liverpool is softest.
Liverpool: 45 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Brighton & Hove Albion: 45 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Liverpool scores most in the 76-90+ band (22 of 72); Liverpool concedes most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 61); Brighton & Hove Albion scores most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 75); Brighton & Hove Albion concedes most in the 31-45+ band (12 of 51). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Liverpool -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.6 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 45 league matches; at home, 1.6 for and 1.1 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 72 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 22. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 22 of 72 (31%).
When it concedes
Of 61 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 61 (30%).
The first goal
Scored first in 24 of its 45 read -- then won 18, drew 5, lost 1; conceded first in 18 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 14 of its 45 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7.
Brighton & Hove Albion -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.7 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 45 league matches; away, 1.5 for and 1.4 against over 22.
When it scores
Of 75 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 13; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 75 (28%).
When it concedes
Of 51 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 11.
The first goal
Scored first in 21 of its 45 read -- then won 16, drew 3, lost 2; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 3 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 16 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 15 of its 45 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Built 10:04 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.