Coventry City: 50 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season in the Championship. Sunderland: 46 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Coventry City scores most in the 76-90+ band (23 of 89); Coventry City concedes most in the 61-75 band (12 of 54); Sunderland scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 48); Sunderland concedes most in the 46-60 band (13 of 62). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Coventry City -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.8 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.9 for and 1.0 against over 25.
When it scores
Of 89 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 13; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 17; 46-60: 20; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 23. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 23 of 89 (26%).
When it concedes
Of 54 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 54 (22%).
The first goal
Scored first in 29 of its 50 read -- then won 23, drew 3, lost 3; conceded first in 17 -- pulled back 5 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 18 of its 50 read, winning 18 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6.
Sunderland -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 46 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 1.7 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 48 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 48 (29%).
When it concedes
Of 62 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 12.
The first goal
Scored first in 14 of its 46 read -- then won 9, drew 5, lost 0; conceded first in 27 -- pulled back 6 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 23 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 5 of its 46 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 5.
Built 06:05 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.