Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 57%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 37%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.
Newcastle United: 46 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season. Everton: 46 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds.
How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Newcastle United's numbers over its games, Everton's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so.
For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Newcastle United's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (43%). In Everton's own 23 away matches read, 7 (30%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 37% of games.
The two sides
Newcastle United -- at home
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 29 of its own 46 (63%); over 1.5 in 36 (78%); over 3.5 in 17 (37%). At home: over 2.5 in 18 of its 23 (78%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 30 of its own 46 (65%). At home: 18 of its 23 (78%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 46 (22%); failed to score in 10 (22%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Newcastle United's own 46 matches read: Newcastle United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (43%). Newcastle United itself held the lead in 11, winning 10. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 23.
Everton -- away
Over and under
Over 2.5 goals in 19 of its own 46 (41%); over 1.5 in 35 (76%); over 3.5 in 10 (22%). Away: over 2.5 in 8 of its 23 (35%).
Both teams to score
Both teams scored in 22 of its own 46 (48%). Away: 11 of its 23 (48%).
Clean sheets and blanks
Kept a clean sheet in 14 of its own 46 (30%); failed to score in 13 (28%).
Two goals clear
Counted over Everton's own 46 matches read: Everton or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (41%). Everton itself held the lead in 9, winning 8. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 23.
Built 10:31 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.