Newcastle United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Everton scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Newcastle United's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Everton is softest.
Newcastle United: 46 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season. Everton: 46 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season.
The question this step asks
Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference.
Side by side: Newcastle United scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 65); Newcastle United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (24 of 69); Everton scores most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 55); Everton concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 59). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask.
The two sides
Newcastle United -- at home
Goals a game
Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 46 league matches; at home, 1.8 for and 1.6 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 65 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 65 (23%).
When it concedes
Of 69 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 24. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 24 of 69 (35%).
The first goal
Scored first in 27 of its 46 read -- then won 16, drew 4, lost 7; conceded first in 15 -- pulled back 1 win and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 4 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 46 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 11.
Everton -- away
Goals a game
Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 46 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 1.2 against over 23.
When it scores
Of 55 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 55 (33%).
When it concedes
Of 59 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 59 (29%).
The first goal
Scored first in 19 of its 46 read -- then won 13, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 24 -- pulled back 2 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 13 points.
Two-goal swings
Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 46 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8.
Built 10:31 from matches completed before
kick-off. Every figure is an observed count with its denominator —
not a forecast, and nothing here is a tip or a selection.